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Bowl season truly is a new season. It might as well be August. No one knows what is going to happen.
Some players are thrilled to be there. Some players are just happy to be there. Some players have left to prepare for the NFL draft. Some players have entered the transfer portal. Some players are listening to interim coaches, patching the holes left by bosses who’ve been fired or found more lucrative opportunities.
It’s all right to acknowledge that we don’t know what’s going to happen next. The good news? Neither do the books.
College Football Bowl game predictions
Fenway Bowl pick (Sat. 12/17, 11 a.m. ET, ESPN)
Cincinnati (+1.5) over Louisville
Neither team will have its head coach in Boston, but the most impactful absence is that of Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham. The Cardinals will be forced to start Brock Domann (three touchdowns, five interceptions, 53.7 completion percentage), giving the edge to the AAC’s best defense.
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New Mexico Bowl pick (Sat. 12/17, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
SMU (-3.5) over BYU
A battle of entertaining offenses — and helpless defenses — could be one of the best bowl games of the year. It could also be one of the most lopsided, if BYU quarterback Jaren Hall isn’t able to play through a sprained ankle.
LA Bowl pick (Sat. 12/17, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Fresno State (-3.5) over Washington State:
The Bulldogs enter with eight straight wins, thanks to future NFL quarterback Jake Haener. The Cougars’ 111th-ranked passing defense doesn’t stand a chance against the Mountain West champs.
Lending Tree Bowl pick (Sat. 12/17, 5:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Southern Miss. (-6.5) over Rice:
Both teams struggle to score, but the Owls offer hope, allowing 36 points per game. Rice deserves little love anyway as an undeserving 5-7 entrant, while the Golden Eagles have cashed nine of 12 spreads.
Las Vegas Bowl pick (Sat. 12/17, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Florida (+10) over Oregon State:
Don’t overreact to Anthony Richardson’s early jump to the NFL. The future first-round pick rarely played to his potential anyway. Jack Miller — a highly rated recruit who spent the past two years behind Richardson and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud — could excel in his first career start, facing the 84th-ranked pass defense and a team that only won one game away from home by more than a field goal.
Frisco Bowl pick (Sat. 12/17, 9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
North Texas (+10.5) over Boise State:
The Broncos’ sixth-ranked defense ranks among the most fraudulent units in the sport. Boise State’s four losses have come against the four best offenses it has faced this season. Former Yankees prospect Austin Aune leads the best attack the Broncos have played this year.
Myrtle Beach Bowl pick (Mon. 12/19, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
UConn (+10) over Marshall:
Jim Mora Jr. deserves a statue on campus for leading the Huskies to a bowl game in his first season. Feel confident backing the longtime doormat, which upset Fresno State and Liberty, and went 9-3 against the spread.
Idaho Bowl pick (Tues. 12/20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
San Jose State (-4.5) over Eastern Michigan:
Finally, the California Bowl rematch we’ve waited 35 years to see. It was also the last time anyone saw the Eagles win a bowl game. I’d feel better about them breaking the drought if they’d beaten even one team with a winning record this season.
Boca Raton Bowl pick (Tues. 12/20, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Liberty (+4.5) over Toledo:
Most signs point to the Rockets running away with this game, coming off a MAC title. The Flames have been in a free fall, losing three straight games — most recently, a 35-point home loss to New Mexico State — and head coach Hugh Freeze to Auburn. Still, the talent that took down Arkansas, BYU and UAB remains. The three-plus week break will do wonders.
New Orleans Bowl pick (Wed. 12/21, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Western Kentucky (+4.5) over South Alabama:
The Hilltoppers’ top-10 offense will remain in high gear now that star quarterback Austen Reed decided to remove his name from the transfer portal, eschewing a potential move to Auburn and landing an NIL deal with a local real estate company. Somehow, the sport continues to thrive with players getting paid. Shocking.
Armed Forces Bowl pick (Thur. 12/22, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Air Force (+5.5) over Baylor:
In theory, Dave Aranda has more than enough time to devise a winning game plan to slow the one-dimensional Falcons. In reality, Air Force coach Troy Calhoun hasn’t had trouble prepping for bowl opponents, winning his past three postseason trips.
Independence Bowl pick (Fri. 12/23, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Houston (-6.5) over Louisiana:
Flip a coin. The Cougars are a weekly guessing game, capable of surrendering 77 points to SMU and limiting East Carolina to a field goal. But expect this game to mean a little more to Dana Holgorsen, who recently lost mentor Mike Leach.
Gasparilla Bowl pick (Fri. 12/23, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Wake Forest (-1) over Missouri:
The Tigers played an SEC schedule that featured only one matchup against an elite passing attack. That Nov. 12 meeting with Tennessee ended with the Vols scoring 66 points and Hendon Hooker throwing for 355 yards and three touchdowns. Sam Hartman’s final game at Wake Forest should also feature fireworks.
Hawaii Bowl pick (Sat. 12/24, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
San Diego State (-7) over Middle Tennessee:
The Blue Raiders enter with a three-game win streak and the memory of last year’s Bahamas Bowl victory, but the Aztecs are out of their league. Middle Tennessee lost its three games this season to bowl-eligible teams by an average of 20 points.
Quick Lane Bowl pick (Mon. 12/26, 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
New Mexico State (+3) over Bowling Green:
It looked like another lost season for the Aggies, who opened 1-5. Then, Jerry Kill’s first season in charge produced five wins in six games, giving New Mexico State more wins than the previous three seasons combined. Kill will leave his sixth bowl appearance — and first since 2014 — with his first win.
Camellia Bowl pick (Tues. 12/27, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Georgia Southern (-3.5) over Buffalo:
Kyle Vantrease’s final college start will come against the school he led for three years. The Sun Belt’s passing leader knows exactly what — and who — he’ll be facing in a matchup with the Bulls, whose lone win since Oct. 22 came against last-place Akron.
First Responder Bowl pick (Tues. 12/27, 3:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Utah State (+7.5) over Memphis:
A battle of .500 teams sums up what bowl season is all about, but these teams are headed in different directions. The Tigers are 2-5 in their past seven games, while the Aggies are 5-2 in their past seven and one year removed from an outright upset of Oregon State in the LA Bowl.
Betting on College Football?
Birmingham Bowl pick (Tues. 12/27, 6:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Coastal Carolina (+8.5) over East Carolina:
Coach Jamey Chadwell is off to Liberty and Grayson McCall is in the transfer portal, but the Chanticleers will have their star quarterback for one more game. Expect McCall — a three-time Sun Belt Player of the Year — to ball out in a showcase game for multiple Power Five schools.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl pick (Tues. 12/27, 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Wisconsin (-3) over Oklahoma State:
The draft and transfer portal have robbed much of the intrigue from this game, headlined by each team’s quarterback leaving his respective program. The Badgers will be fine without the underachieving Graham Mertz, but the Cowboys’ 1-4 finish to the regular season — when they averaged less than 14 points per game — lets Mike Gundy know what’s ahead.
Military Bowl pick (Wed. 12/28, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Duke (-3) over UCF:
The Blue Devils have exceeded expectations all season, going 8-4 against the spread and winning four of their past five games outright. Duke’s advantage up front should allow it to maintain control against a Knights defense that has allowed an average of 241 rushing yards over their past four games.
Liberty Bowl pick (Wed. 12/28, 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Arkansas (-3) over Kansas:
The Jayhawks are the better story, playing in their first bowl since 2008. The Hogs are the better team, capable of winning by two touchdowns or more in this matchup of a top-10 ground game and the nation’s 119th-ranked run defense.
Holiday Bowl pick (Wed. 12/28, 8 p.m. ET, FOX)
North Carolina (+14) over Oregon:
The Ducks were in position to reach the College Football Playoff in Dan Lanning’s first season, but closed the regular season with a pair of epic chokes. A slew of player absences — including cornerback Christian Gonzalez — could spell more trouble in a shootout against 2023 Heisman contender Drake Maye.
Texas Bowl pick (Wed. 12/28, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Texas Tech (+3.5) over Ole Miss:
The Rebels’ 7-0 start was always a product of their remarkably soft schedule. Since then, Lane Kiffin’s squad — which has one win against a winning team this season — has gone 1-4. Take the points and the streaking Red Raiders, who are capable of winning a shootout or a low-scoring slugfest.
Pinstripe Bowl pick (Thur. 12/29, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Minnesota (-7.5) over Syracuse:
P.J. Fleck is undefeated in three bowl appearances with the Golden Gophers. The injury-riddled Orange have one win in the past two months. Syracuse fans loyal enough to freeze in a half-empty Yankee Stadium can’t make that much of a difference.
Cheez-It Bowl pick (Thur. 12/29, 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Oklahoma (+7.5) over Florida State:
The Sooners won’t prevail, but Brent Venables’ first season as a head coach won’t end without one more fight. Despite suffering their most losses in a season this century, Oklahoma didn’t lose any game that Dillon Gabriel started and finished by more than seven points.
Alamo Bowl pick (Thur. 12/29, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Washington (+5) over Texas:
The Longhorns will struggle to consistently move the chains without All-American running back Bijan Robinson. Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies’ top-ranked passing attack will have no such problems.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl pick (Fri. 12/30, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
N.C. State (+1.5) over Maryland:
The Wolfpack had four meetings against top-15 passing offenses this season and won each game, holding each of those opponents (North Carolina, Wake Forest, Texas Tech, East Carolina) well below its season scoring averages. An inferior pass-first unit from College Park will be glad it won’t see its former ACC foe again soon.
Sun Bowl pick (Fri. 12/30, 2 p.m. ET, CBS)
UCLA (-6.5) over Pittsburgh:
Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s availability is uncertain. Here’s to thinking the senior wants to leave Westwood with at least one bowl win.
Gator Bowl pick (Fri. 12/30, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
South Carolina (+2.5) over Notre Dame:
Feel good about fading the Irish, who are stuck with Tyler Buchner at quarterback again. Feel equally confident that Spencer Rattler’s late-season success will dupe an NFL team into taking an early-round flier of him, only to discover he mirrored the Jerome James playoff run that brought him to the Knicks.
Arizona Bowl pick (Fri. 12/30, 4:30 p.m. ET, Barstool)
Wyoming (+1.5) over Ohio:
The Cowboys have scored a total of 30 points in their past three games. The Bobcats scored seven points with backup quarterback C.J. Harris filling in for the MAC championship. Take the under.
Orange Bowl pick (Fri. 12/30, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Clemson (-6.5) over Tennessee:
Both teams’ playoff hopes were unexpectedly extinguished by South Carolina, leaving both without multiple key contributors. The Vols’ high-flying offense will suffer without quarterback Hendon Hooker and wide receivers Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman, while Clemson will shine with Cade Klubnik giving Dabo Swinney more reasons to kick himself for stubbornly sticking with the departing DJ Uiagalelei for so long.
Music City Bowl pick (Sat. 12/31, 12 p.m. ET, ABC)
Iowa (-2.5) over Kentucky:
Will Levis was wise to opt out of this Citrus Bowl rematch (Kentucky won 20-17). The future first-round pick already has enough uninspiring play on tape already without this matchup against a top-10 defense.
Sugar Bowl pick (Sat. 12/31, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Alabama (-3.5) over Kansas State:
It doesn’t matter how many of Nick Saban’s starters show up. His backups are better than most of the opponents’ starters. In Alabama’s only other season missing the College Football Playoff (2019), the Crimson Tide topped Michigan by 19.
ReliaQuest Bowl pick (Mon. 1/2, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
Mississippi State (+2) over Illinois:
Any edge in motivation means even more in largely meaningless bowl games. Mike Leach’s presence will be obvious.
Citrus Bowl pick (Mon. 1/2, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN)
LSU (-14) over Purdue:
The Tigers have lost more players to the draft, but the Boilermakers suffer the biggest defection in quarterback Aidan O’Connell. An athletic, aggressive defense is a rough spot for Austin Burton to be making his second start in three years.
Cotton Bowl pick (Mon. 1/2, 1 p.m. ET, ABC)
Tulane (+1.5) over USC:
It’s hard to imagine Heisman winner Caleb Williams suiting up after injuring his hamstring in the Pac-12 title game. It’s harder to imagine how the Trojans get up for this game after blowing their first playoff opportunity.
Rose Bowl pick (Mon. 1/2, 5 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Penn State (+2.5) over Utah:
Put the Nittany Lions — whose only losses came to Michigan and Ohio State — in the Pac-12 and they probably reach the playoff this season. After running through USC’s tackling dummies, Penn State’s 13th-ranked defense will be a rough wake-up call.
Best bets: North Texas, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas, Washington, Michigan
This season: 98-102-6
2014-21 record: 1,030-970-19
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